6: NHEA-Aligned MEPS Expenditures by Type of Service and Source of Payment
2002 Baseline Expenditures and 2003-2016 Projected Expenditures
All Expenditures Are Expressed in Millions
TOS/SOP Out-of-pocket Private Medicare Medicaid Tricare VA Workers comp Other public Other SOP Total SOP
YEAR=2002 Baseline
1 HOSPITAL 13,192 154,890 113,150 46,407 1,750 11,383 5,762 1,255 2,162 349,951
2 PHYSICIAN 23,553 128,663 53,159 19,217 3,841 1,097 9,451 2,039 2,643 243,663
3 DENTAL 31,783 34,719 71 4,196 0 13 0 326 1,562 72,670
4 OTHER PROV 14,031 30,037 11,711 4,886 0 93 4,959 404 1,282 67,404
5 HOME HEALTH 3,383 8,612 13,676 12,917 54 551 177 2,393 31 41,794
6 RX 37,881 77,586 2,238 34,290 1,842 1,820 2,088 551 29 158,325
7 OTHER MED 18,128 3,167 8,294 0 0 0 329 101 254 30,273
Total TOS 141,950 437,674 202,299 121,914 7,487 14,958 22,767 7,069 7,963 964,081
YEAR=2003 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 14,486 169,015 118,210 50,086 1,908 12,380 6,266 1,319 2,339 376,010
2 PHYSICIAN 25,068 140,268 57,965 21,069 4,185 1,212 10,442 2,108 2,858 265,172
3 DENTAL 33,660 35,997 64 4,686 0 12 0 309 1,637 76,366
4 OTHER PROV 15,087 32,896 12,384 5,450 0 97 5,154 410 1,377 72,855
5 HOME HEALTH 3,432 8,927 15,955 15,497 56 540 174 2,334 34 46,947
6 RX 41,454 83,143 2,198 41,026 1,973 2,341 2,685 684 32 175,535
7 OTHER MED 19,113 3,350 9,611 0 0 0 345 103 275 32,797
Total TOS 152,300 473,596 216,388 137,814 8,121 16,582 25,066 7,267 8,551 1,045,684
YEAR=2004 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 15,761 182,523 124,873 53,752 2,059 13,265 6,714 1,391 2,502 402,840
2 PHYSICIAN 26,739 150,910 62,734 22,882 4,500 1,254 10,805 2,119 3,051 284,994
3 DENTAL 35,442 38,435 66 4,940 0 12 0 310 1,735 80,940
4 OTHER PROV 16,154 35,485 13,648 6,465 0 89 4,730 373 1,471 78,414
5 HOME HEALTH 3,645 9,041 18,523 17,836 56 564 181 2,427 37 52,309
6 RX 43,428 89,722 3,044 45,001 2,128 2,594 2,975 745 35 189,671
7 OTHER MED 19,313 3,410 9,788 0 0 0 343 101 279 33,235
Total TOS 160,483 509,524 232,674 150,876 8,744 17,778 25,750 7,465 9,109 1,122,403
YEAR=2005 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 16,694 193,954 133,767 55,636 2,189 13,804 6,987 1,431 2,663 427,124
2 PHYSICIAN 28,924 163,441 65,990 24,052 4,875 1,269 10,937 2,100 3,254 304,843
3 DENTAL 37,716 40,783 80 5,130 0 13 0 322 1,844 85,888
4 OTHER PROV 16,982 37,976 15,550 7,214 0 81 4,341 341 1,572 84,058
5 HOME HEALTH 3,778 9,205 21,398 20,037 57 583 187 2,500 40 57,785
6 RX 45,812 95,305 3,550 45,161 2,261 2,818 3,233 801 37 198,978
7 OTHER MED 19,538 3,450 10,065 0 0 0 340 99 284 33,775
Total TOS 169,445 544,113 250,401 157,230 9,382 18,568 26,024 7,595 9,694 1,192,451
YEAR=2006 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 18,091 211,395 139,145 57,196 2,387 14,959 7,572 1,572 2,840 455,157
2 PHYSICIAN 30,799 173,309 69,701 25,225 5,174 1,344 11,584 2,264 3,432 322,833
3 DENTAL 39,924 43,021 92 5,291 0 15 0 370 1,949 90,661
4 OTHER PROV 17,796 40,196 16,772 7,207 0 78 4,139 327 1,647 88,163
5 HOME HEALTH 4,050 9,909 23,197 22,537 62 664 213 2,857 44 63,533
6 RX 44,643 94,576 35,741 23,517 2,245 3,108 3,565 894 40 208,329
7 OTHER MED 19,876 3,487 10,414 0 0 0 345 102 290 34,515
Total TOS 175,179 575,893 295,062 140,973 9,868 20,168 27,418 8,386 10,242 1,263,191
YEAR=2007 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 19,570 228,308 144,790 63,389 2,579 15,776 7,985 1,619 3,042 487,058
2 PHYSICIAN 32,405 183,296 73,468 25,914 5,475 1,430 12,319 2,327 3,608 340,241
3 DENTAL 42,126 45,841 109 5,355 0 16 0 400 2,063 95,910
4 OTHER PROV 18,655 41,820 17,873 7,600 0 79 4,198 328 1,724 92,275
5 HOME HEALTH 4,241 10,355 24,989 25,521 65 706 227 3,026 47 69,178
6 RX 47,158 100,185 38,629 25,567 2,380 3,341 3,833 947 43 222,081
7 OTHER MED 20,362 3,591 10,937 0 0 0 357 104 300 35,650
Total TOS 184,517 613,396 310,793 153,346 10,498 21,348 28,919 8,751 10,826 1,342,394
YEAR=2008 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 21,050 244,489 156,027 67,113 2,762 16,546 8,375 1,661 3,240 521,263
2 PHYSICIAN 34,258 195,097 75,991 27,998 5,829 1,507 12,981 2,379 3,796 359,835
3 DENTAL 44,221 48,582 123 5,896 0 17 0 409 2,181 101,429
4 OTHER PROV 19,721 43,695 18,990 8,365 0 80 4,286 331 1,815 97,283
5 HOME HEALTH 4,392 10,666 26,896 28,075 67 735 236 3,136 49 74,253
6 RX 49,998 106,470 41,593 27,224 2,530 3,582 4,109 997 45 236,548
7 OTHER MED 20,725 3,669 11,779 0 0 0 359 104 311 36,946
Total TOS 194,364 652,670 331,398 164,670 11,188 22,467 30,346 9,017 11,437 1,427,558
YEAR=2009 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 22,642 261,972 166,265 71,555 2,961 17,419 8,817 1,708 3,440 556,779
2 PHYSICIAN 36,311 207,832 79,540 29,593 6,214 1,588 13,681 2,419 3,996 381,174
3 DENTAL 46,535 51,447 139 6,308 0 16 0 401 2,304 107,149
4 OTHER PROV 20,997 45,817 19,686 9,036 0 82 4,391 334 1,905 102,249
5 HOME HEALTH 4,547 11,008 28,800 30,901 69 767 246 3,253 51 79,641
6 RX 52,674 112,574 46,233 29,201 2,676 3,817 4,379 1,039 49 252,642
7 OTHER MED 21,220 3,770 11,921 0 0 0 358 102 318 37,688
Total TOS 204,925 694,419 352,583 176,593 11,920 23,689 31,873 9,256 12,063 1,517,321
YEAR=2010 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 24,279 279,675 177,249 76,180 3,163 18,365 9,296 1,765 3,645 593,617
2 PHYSICIAN 38,577 222,220 82,890 31,470 6,648 1,676 14,444 2,460 4,215 404,600
3 DENTAL 49,118 54,315 157 6,794 0 16 0 398 2,435 113,233
4 OTHER PROV 22,389 47,985 20,785 9,806 0 85 4,525 339 2,009 107,924
5 HOME HEALTH 4,715 11,373 30,653 34,087 71 800 257 3,374 53 85,384
6 RX 55,793 119,775 51,280 31,656 2,850 4,062 4,660 1,088 52 271,217
7 OTHER MED 21,761 3,886 12,692 0 0 0 360 100 330 39,128
Total TOS 216,632 739,229 375,707 189,994 12,732 25,004 33,541 9,524 12,739 1,615,104
YEAR=2011 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 25,989 299,709 188,425 81,238 3,391 19,348 9,793 1,806 3,866 633,565
2 PHYSICIAN 40,864 236,839 86,204 33,470 7,089 1,768 15,230 2,500 4,433 428,396
3 DENTAL 51,780 57,281 171 7,324 0 16 0 388 2,570 119,531
4 OTHER PROV 23,821 50,031 21,887 10,642 0 87 4,660 344 2,113 113,585
5 HOME HEALTH 4,870 11,711 32,507 37,657 73 836 269 3,504 55 91,482
6 RX 59,348 127,990 56,937 34,450 3,047 4,318 4,954 1,132 57 292,232
7 OTHER MED 22,299 3,999 13,479 0 0 0 359 98 343 40,577
Total TOS 228,971 787,560 399,610 204,780 13,600 26,373 35,264 9,773 13,436 1,719,368
YEAR=2012 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 27,730 320,188 200,977 86,485 3,624 20,406 10,329 1,850 4,104 675,693
2 PHYSICIAN 43,302 251,271 90,109 35,631 7,525 1,867 16,082 2,551 4,652 452,990
3 DENTAL 54,565 60,371 187 7,906 0 16 0 389 2,713 126,147
4 OTHER PROV 25,291 51,949 23,258 11,556 0 90 4,802 350 2,222 119,519
5 HOME HEALTH 5,028 12,055 34,479 41,410 75 874 281 3,643 57 97,902
6 RX 63,302 137,137 63,561 37,544 3,266 4,607 5,285 1,185 61 315,948
7 OTHER MED 22,851 4,122 14,533 0 0 0 360 96 358 42,320
Total TOS 242,070 837,093 427,104 220,532 14,491 27,859 37,138 10,065 14,167 1,830,518
YEAR=2013 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 29,436 340,582 215,019 91,993 3,857 21,525 10,895 1,899 4,338 719,546
2 PHYSICIAN 45,848 266,272 94,560 38,012 7,979 1,971 16,986 2,592 4,880 479,100
3 DENTAL 57,483 63,608 202 8,566 0 16 0 394 2,863 133,133
4 OTHER PROV 26,840 53,836 24,802 12,570 0 93 4,948 355 2,338 125,781
5 HOME HEALTH 5,201 12,418 36,633 45,468 78 914 294 3,790 59 104,854
6 RX 68,089 147,944 70,139 40,896 3,525 4,931 5,657 1,236 67 342,483
7 OTHER MED 23,405 4,245 15,710 0 0 0 362 95 374 44,190
Total TOS 256,302 888,905 457,064 237,506 15,439 29,451 39,141 10,362 14,919 1,949,088
YEAR=2014 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 31,276 361,945 229,610 97,761 4,102 22,707 11,494 1,943 4,583 765,421
2 PHYSICIAN 48,319 281,092 99,152 40,613 8,428 2,082 17,941 2,640 5,104 505,371
3 DENTAL 60,556 67,011 220 9,304 0 17 0 402 3,022 140,531
4 OTHER PROV 28,447 55,665 26,438 13,686 0 96 5,098 358 2,457 132,245
5 HOME HEALTH 5,375 12,799 38,854 49,820 80 957 308 3,944 61 112,198
6 RX 73,438 160,085 77,552 44,495 3,817 5,292 6,071 1,292 72 372,115
7 OTHER MED 23,961 4,365 16,954 0 0 0 364 93 391 46,129
Total TOS 271,373 942,961 488,780 255,680 16,427 31,151 41,275 10,672 15,689 2,074,009
YEAR=2015 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 33,205 384,121 244,919 103,786 4,355 23,957 12,126 1,992 4,832 813,293
2 PHYSICIAN 50,730 295,862 103,876 43,470 8,877 2,199 18,949 2,677 5,327 531,967
3 DENTAL 63,980 70,775 236 10,128 0 17 0 409 3,199 148,744
4 OTHER PROV 30,141 57,506 28,159 14,918 0 99 5,254 363 2,580 139,020
5 HOME HEALTH 5,557 13,189 41,226 54,564 83 1,005 323 4,114 64 120,124
6 RX 79,477 173,838 85,875 48,362 4,147 5,678 6,513 1,352 79 405,320
7 OTHER MED 24,510 4,478 18,278 0 0 0 367 92 408 48,132
Total TOS 287,600 999,769 522,568 275,229 17,462 32,954 43,531 10,999 16,489 2,206,600
YEAR=2016 Projections
1 HOSPITAL 35,150 406,044 261,610 110,070 4,606 25,271 12,791 2,043 5,092 862,677
2 PHYSICIAN 53,155 311,057 109,314 46,596 9,337 2,322 20,009 2,712 5,560 560,062
3 DENTAL 67,830 74,993 254 11,044 0 17 0 417 3,397 157,953
4 OTHER PROV 31,967 59,421 30,095 16,280 0 102 5,412 367 2,713 146,357
5 HOME HEALTH 5,735 13,610 43,806 59,891 85 1,056 339 4,296 66 128,886
6 RX 86,298 189,379 95,218 52,428 4,520 6,099 6,997 1,408 87 442,434
7 OTHER MED 25,114 4,592 19,736 0 0 0 369 90 427 50,328
Total TOS 305,248 1,059,096 560,034 296,310 18,548 34,868 45,917 11,333 17,342 2,348,696

Source: Projected MEPS Expenditures based on 2002 NHEA-Aligned MEPS. Note: Standard errors are not presented (and are not available), nonetheless, these estimates are associated with uncertainty from a variety of sources.